A review of the property market’s behaviour over two decades showed that most cities experienced significant gains over the period, but also revealed that the best regions for growth in a given five-year period are typically the weaker areas for growth over the following five years.
Cameron Kusher, CoreLogic research analyst, reported that national dwelling values increased by 197.4% over the past 20 years, with the combined capital cities recording stronger total value growth (212.4%) than the combined regional markets (150.3%).
Melbourne’s price gain of 274.6% was the highest increase in terms of value over the period, while Darwin’s value only grew by 38.4%, making it the lowest gain.
Across the rest of the country, growth has been strongest in regional New South Wales (185.6%) and weakest in regional Western Australia (77.5%). Darwin and regional WA were the only two major regions of the country where values have not doubled over the past 20 years.
The report found that the five years to January 2004 was the strongest five-year period for value growth within the past 20 years, with national dwelling values climbing by 80.2%. During the same period, capital city value growth was greatest in Canberra (110.9%) and weakest in Darwin (-3.9%). The next weakest growth in capital city values was recorded in Perth (63.5%).
Market prices in regional WA (24.4%) and regional NT (28.9%) only rose slightly compared to the remaining areas where strong growth was apparent. Values in regional NSW doubled at 108.8%.
Over the five years to January 2009, national dwelling values rose by 14.9%. Perth (52.3%) and Hobart (57.1%) were the cities with the strongest value growth within the period. Sydney values fell by 4.6%, marking the weakest value growth among capital city markets during the time.
In regional markets, regional WA values were up by a whopping 80.9%, thanks to the mining boom. Notably, regional NSW, which recorded the strongest value growth over the previous five years, was the weakest market during this period. Values in the area fell by 3.4%.
The five years to January 2014 were significant inasmuch as the global financial crisis had just passed and the mining boom ended. Values across the nation rose 20.3% during these five years.
“The growth in values over the period was almost entirely driven by the combined capital cities (25.3%) with very little value growth across the combined regional markets (4.8%),” Kusher said.
Across the capital cities, value growth in Sydney (36.5%) and Melbourne (32.3%) was much stronger compared to the rest of the areas. Brisbane (5%), on the other hand, posted the weakest growth. Regionally, values dropped by 2% over the five years in regional Queensland, while regional Northern Territory (30.2%) had the greatest increase in values over the period.
During the most recent five years, national dwelling values have increased by 19.4%. Drops were observed on Perth (-15.6%) and Darwin (-24.4%), while Hobart (35.1%) has experienced the strongest value growth.
In the regional markets, values have fallen in regional SA (-1.1%), regional WA (-22.6%) and regional NT (-7.3%), while regional NSW has recorded the largest value increase (28.2%).